12/28/09 The update of stock trading systems

As of close of 12/28/09, all of the folloiwng 3 systems are all still at buy signal.

1) Super Trend Trading system

2) The Mehcanical Major Bottom and Top system

3) Short Term Trading System

US stock market Summary -12/13/09

The SuperTrend trading system signal, the major top and bottom system signal and the short term trading system are all still at buy signal.

From daily charts, both Nasdaq and $SPX are trading at the upper limit of traing range. No breakout yet.

US stock market summary --- 12/1/09

The market was up strong. From 60min chart, now $SPX is trading at the upper limit the trading range.

Breaking above the the upper limit of the trading range would issue the short term system new buy signal.

US stock market summary --- 11/27/09

Today's market is very bearish. Nasadq had big gap down and once lost 61pts at the opening. It bounced off from the intermediate uptrend line and 50 daily MA.It closed below it daily 20EMA and closed right at its daily 20MA, with 37pts loss. $SPX broke below its daily 20EMA and closed slightly above its daily 20EMA, with 23 pts loss. $NASI,$NYSI and $Bpcompq issued new sell signal today.

The mechanical major top and bottom system is closed to issue a new sell signal, but not yet. The Super trend trading system is still at buy signal.

US stock market summary ---- 11/24/09

From 60 min chart, Nasadq is trading within the descending triangle. Breaking out from the descending triangle would be short term bullish. Breaking down from the descending triangle woule be short term bearish.
From 60 min chart, $SPX is traing with the range: 1085 to 1112. Breaking below 1085 would be short term bearish. Breaking above 1112 woule be short term bullish.

US stock market summary --- 11/23/09

Today's bounce broke above 2170 (for Nasadq) and 1100 (for $SPX), which showed some strength. But this still rule out the possibility that the bounce may be short-lived. The key is to watch if 2170 (for Nasadq) and 1100 (for $SPX) can hold or not when the market pullacks back to them tomorrow,

US stock market summary -- 11/22/09

Atough US market only had small loss Friday, the bearish market breadth are indicating more downside is ahead. On the other hand, both Nasdaq and $SPX bounced off a little bit from their daily 20EMA. From their 6o min chart, the MACD histogram is showing positive divergence. This means the market has higher chance to bounce Monday morning. Nasadq could first test 2160 and then 2170 if 2160 is taken out. $SPX could first test 1095, and then 1100 if 1095 is taken out.

My SuperTrend Trading System is still at buy signa. And my mechanical major top and bottom system is still at major buy signal. My short term system is still at short term sell signal as of 11/20 market close.

US stock market summary --- 11/19/09

Nasadq and $SPX's switched to short term downtrend this morning. My short term trading system generated a new short term sell signal at 8:00AM PT.

Is this just a short term correction or something bigger than that? Tomorrow will give better clue for that.

US stock market summary --- 11/18/09

From 60min Nasadq chart, the short term uptrend line was broken. Breaking below 2168 would confirm the short term trend change. Looking at 60 min and daily $SPX chart, breaking below 1100 would confirm the short term trend change.

US Stock Market Summary --- 11/16/09

The mechanical major top and bottom had a new buy today. This buy signal came late. Nasdaq and $SPX had breakout today, which is bullish. But CMF(20) of daily Nasadq and $SPX are still negative, which means money flow out. This is certainly not a bullish sign.

US stock market summary --- 11/12/09

Today's top could be the long-waited top. The recent rally came with lower volume. Today's sell-off came with increased volume. This is bearish sign. CMF(20) of daily Nasadq and $SPX went to negative territory today.

US stock market summary --- 11/11/09

$SPX is approaching important resistance at 1100 and Nasadq closed at important resistance of 2150. $Bpcompq and $Bpspx have not confirmed the recent rally. Bull should be careful at the current level. A reversal could happen any time soon.

US stock market summary --- 11/9/09

$Bpcompq is not confirming today's rally. My mid term view is neutral. Also, Dow has been strongest and made new high. $SPX is recently stronger than Nasdaq. This is not bullish sign.

My trade 1 position -- QID position, by following the mecahnical major top and bottom system was stopped out when daily 20MA of Nasdaq and $SPX were taken out. But, no new buy signal was produced from this system yet

US stock maket update --- 11/09/09, 7:00AM PT.

Market continued to show upside strength this morning. Nasadq and $SPX broke above their daily 20MA. Although the scenario of forming right shoulders of head and shoulders top pattern still have chance to be true, I changed my mid term view from bearish to neutral. My trade 1 position -- QID position by following the mechanical top and bottom system was stopped out this morning.

For Nasadq, its next upside target is 2150. For $SPX, its next upisde target is the broken intermediate term uptrend line, which is ~1185 now.

Stock Trading System Signal update --- 11/08/09

The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09) .

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).

The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy signal was generated at close of 3/20/09) .

Trading positions:

Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: -2.7%

Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SSO (SDS was purchased at $34.76 at 8:00AM PT of 11/5/09). Gain/loss: +1%

Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +96%

Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): No position.

US stock market summary --- 11/08/09

Looking at daily chart of Nasadq and $SPX, the recent rally came with lower volume. Also, NASI, $NYSI, $Bpcompq and $Bpspx all didn't confirm the recent rally. There's still higher chance the recent rally is forming the right shoulder of head and shoulders top pattern.

But if Nasadq and $SPX break above their daily 20MA decisively, I will change my mid term view to neutral, although breaking above 20MA still can not rule of the possibility of forming right shoulder of head and shoulders top pattern for Nasdaq.

As of close of 10/6/09, my mehcancial top and bottom system has not issused a new buy signal yet. The Super Trend Trading System is still at buy signal.

US stock market update --- 11/06/09 8:15 AM PT

Both Nasadq and $SPX were testing daily 20MA/20EMA and found some resistance there. As I stated last night, my mid term bearish view still holds as long as daily 20MA is not taken out decisively. Look at daily Nasadq chart, it could be in the process of forming right shoulder of head and shoulders top.

US stock market summary --- 11/5/09

Market was up strong today. My short term trading system issued a new short term buy signal at 8:00AM PT.
My mid term bearish view still hold as long as daily 20MA of Nasadq and $SPX are not taken out.

US stcok market morning update --- 11/5/09, 8:10AM PT.

My short term trading system generated a new short term buy signal at 8:00AM PT this morning.

US stock market morning update --- 11/5/09, 7:35AM PT.

11/5/09 7:35AM PT, the goods news from emplyment and consumer spending drove the market go up significantly this morning. Now $SPX is testing its daily 20EMA and Nasadq is testing its daily 20EMA and 50MA, which may provide some resistance. Although the market is in downtrend, I wouldn't add new shorts at current level until I see the bounce loses strength.

Stock trading systems: The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09)

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).

The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy signal was generated at close of 3/20/09)

Trading positions:
Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: +3.8%

Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SDS (SDS was purchased at $38.24 at 7:00AM PT of 10/22/09). Gain/loss: +5.8%

Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +85%

Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): Neutral (SDS was purchased at $40.18 and was stopped out at $39.93 today with a loss of 0.6%)

US stock market summary --- 11/4/09

The market had nice gain this morning. But both Nasadq and $SPX certainly found strong resistance at their daily 50EMA and 20EMA, respectively. In the last hour, they lost all the gain and closed with almost even. Daily $SPX showed a bearish candlestick: inverted hammer.

The market breadth is still negative. The bounce starting a few days ago could finish today. The market has higher chance to resume to go downside tomorrow morning.

A down day tomorrow could trigger my SuperTrend system to issue a new Sell signal.

US stock market update --- 11/4/09, 8:50AM PT

The stronger service industries and employment report drove stock market up this morning. Now, both $SPX and Nasdaq are testing their daily 20EMA.

US stock market summary --- 11/3/09

Sorry for posting late.

Today's market action was telling us the bounce is not done yet. Watch 1035 for $SPX and 2040 for Nasadq. As long as they are not taken out, bounce is not done.

For trading system signals, they are same as yersterday. No new signals were issued today.

US stock market morning update --- 11/3/09

For $SPX, breaking below 1035 would open door to test 1020 which I expect may provide temperary support.

Stock Trading System Signals update --- 11/2/09

Stock trading systems:

The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09)

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).


The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy signal was generated at close of 3/20/09)


Trading positions: Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: +4.7%


Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SDS (SDS was purchased at $38.24 at 7:00AM PT of 10/22/09). Gain/loss: +7%


Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +83%


Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): Long SDS (purchased SDS at 40.18). Gain/loss:+1.8%. Stop loss: 1053 of $SPX

US stock market summary --- 11/2/09

Today's bounce was weak. Nasadq went to as high as 2069 which was 1 point lower than 2070 which I emphaszied to watch in the morning update, before it reversed course. Looking at $Bpcompq and Bpspx, the breadth is very negative although the maket had small gain today.
My Supertrend Trading system has not issued a new Sell signal yet, but it's very close to do that.

US stock market morning update --- 11/2/09

The positive divergence formed on 60 min Nasadq and $SPX charts' MACD indicators played out. Nasdaq bounced off from 2040 and $SPX bounced off from 1035 strongly this morning. For Nasadq, watch the short term downtrend line (the black line in the 60 min Nasadq chart) which now stands at around 2070. If 2070 can not be taken out, the bounce will be weak. If 2070 is broken above, the bounce will have a little more leg before the market resumes downside action.

My SuperTrend System is close to issue a new Sell signal.

The Supertrend system I developed is close to issue a new Sell signal. It have been in buy signal since 3/20/09. From 3/09 until now, its performace is better than my mechanical major top and bottom system.

The intermediate term trend of $USD is up, which is bearish to US stock market

$USD broke above intermediate term downtrend on 10/27/09 and has been in intermediate term uptrend since then. This is bearish to US stock market.

US stock market summary -- 10/30/09 weekend update

The US stock market had major turn this week. On Tuesday (10/27)09, intermediate term trend of Nasadq switched to down. On 10/28/09, intermediate term trend of $SPX switched to down. Wednesaday and Friday's big drop came with big volume. Breadth is very negative, as seen from $Bpcompq and $Bpspx. $VIX had big breakout today, which is bearish to the stock market. This is most likely just the beginning of a major downtrend and there's more room to drop. The market is oversold now, we may see oversold bounce early next week. But, we still can not rule out the possibility that market will continue to go down before an oversold bounce starts. Sometimes, when the downtrend is strong, the oversold rally could come late and shallow. As seen from both daily and weekly Nasadq charts, Nasadq is just 5 pts above important support: 2040 which was the Oct 2 low. Breaking below 2040, that would open the door to test 1960. For $SPX, it closed at the upper limit of support zone 1020 - 1035, which may provide some temperary support. Breaking through this support zone, $SPX would test 980-990.

If there an oversold bounce soon, I may find a good entry point to open short position (long BGZ)for trade 4.

Stock trading system signals update --- 10/30/09

The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09)

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).

The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy signal was generated at close of 3/20/09)

Trading positions:
Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: +5.5%

Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SDS (SDS was purchased at $38.24 at 7:00AM PT of 10/22/09). Gain/loss: +8.3%

Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +81.5% Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): No position.

US stock market update --- 10/30/09

For Nasdaq, 2040, which is the last swing low on 10/2, provided temperary support.

US stock market update --- 10/30/09

Today's big dropp confirmed what I said yersterday " I think there's higher chance that today's bounce is just a deadcat bounce in the downtrend.". Although 2050 for Nasadq may provide temperary support, more downside is ahead.

Stock trading system signal update --- 10/29/09

The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09)

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).

The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy signal was generated at close of 3/20/09)

Trading positions:
Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: +0.3%

Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SDS (SDS was purchased at $38.24 at 7:00AM PT of 10/22/09). Gain/loss: +2.6%

Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +91.7%

Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): No position.

US stock market summary --- 10/29/09

The market had strong bounce today, but the bounce came with lower volume. $Bpcompq and $Bpspx dropped for an strong up day today. I think there's higher chance that today's bounce is just a deadcat bounce in the downtrend. Looking at daily $spx chars, it was backtest the broken intermediate uptrend line with lower volume.

However, I would not be too bearish as long as 2050 for Nasdaq and 1020 for $spx is not taken out. On the other hand, if $spx breaks above 1075, I would change my bearish view.

Stock Trading System Update --- 10/28/09

The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09)

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).

The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy sinal was generated at close of 3/20/09)

Trading positions:

Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: +3.6%

Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SDS (SDS was purchased at $38.24 at 7:00AM PT of 10/22/09). Gain/loss: +7.1%

Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +86%

Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): No position.

US stock market summary --- 10/28/09

Yersterday's major sell signal from the mechanical major top and bottom system gave a good warning. Market had big drop today. Yersterday, I mentioned Nasdaq's 1st downside target is 2050, but I didn't expect Nasadq would head so fast to the 2050. At close today, Nasadq droppd 56 pts and is only 6 points away from major support 2050.

$SPX broken its intermediate uptrend line today. Now, the intermediate trend of Nasadq, NDX and $SPX are all down. For $SPX, the 1st downside target is 1020 - 1030, which I expect to provide some temperary support.

US stock market summary -- 10/27/09

My mechanical major top and bottom system issued a new major SELL signal at market close of 10/27/09. Nasdaq broke below its intermediate uptrend line, 1st downside target is 2050. SPX has not broken below its intermediate uptrend line yet. Once SPX broke below its intermediate uptrend line, that would be very bearish.

US stock summary

I have been very busy recenlty and have not been updated my blog for a few days.

I will go back to regular update soon.

US stock market update -- 10/22/09, 7:10AM ET

My short term trading system issed a new short term sell signal at 7:00AM ET today. Nasadq broke below 2150 and $SPX broke beow 1080. Now, Nasde is testing its daily 20MA. Will post more analysis later.

US stock market update --- 10/20/09

Not much to update today. The support/resistance mentioned in yersterday' update is still valid.
There's no signal change from any of my trading systems.

US stock market summary --- 10/19/09

The market just refused to have any correction. For Nasadq, support is 2150, resistance is 2190 -2200. For $SPX, support is 1075 to 1080, resistance is 1100. $Bpcompq and $Bpspx doesn't support the today's rally, but if we have to respect the price itself as long as the above mentioned support is held. 1100 for $SPX and 2200 for Nasadq are something we need to watch closely.

My mechanical major top and bottom sugnal is still at major buy since the last buy signal generated on 10/9/09.
My short term trading system is still at short term buy since the last buy signal generated on 10/5/09.
My position trading system is still at major buy since the last buy signal generated on 3/18/09

Regarding to trading stock trading system signal

I will try to start to update stock trading system signals and trades related to them Monday since I have been so busy this weekend.

US stock market Summary - 10/18/09

From 60min charts, $spx seems to break down from bearish wedge and were backtesting it. Breaking below 1080 would signal start of short term correction.

2150 is important support for Nasadq, as seen from daily Nasdaq chart. Breaking below 2150 would open the dooor for Nasdaq to test the intermediate uptrend line.

10/15/09 US market summary

For Nasadq, short term support is 2157. Break above 2173, Nasadq would test 2190 - 2200 which may be the show stopper for this big rally from 3/2009. For $SPX, the short term support is 1086, the short term resistance is 1100.

At the blog, I mainly posted my market analysis, which could be biased sometimes. I like to allocate my most capital trade with my mechanical systems , which are motion-free and can give nice gain consistently.

From next week, I may change the content of my blog a little bit. I am considering to include the signal for each of my 3 mechanical trading systems, plus the trades folowing each system, in addtion to daily matket view.

US stock market summary -- 10/13/09 after close

US stock market barely changed today, waiting for Intel's earning report after close. The good early report which was released after close will probably drive Nasdaq to test resistance at 2157 and $SPX to test resistance at 1080. How they will react to these resistance if they get there will give us better clue regarding to market's short term direction.

US stock markey summary -- 10/13/09 10:00AM PT

Toady' market move could be limited, because a lot of opeople are waiting for Intel's earning which will be released after close today, which could be a market mover. at this moment, I would n't bet how it comes out and how it will affect stock market. Let's just wait to get better idea.

US market summary --- 10/12/09 after close

Today, Nasdaq and $SPX broke above the resistance mention at yertserday's post -- 2140 and 1075, respectivly. $SPX tested 9/23 high at 1080. And Nasdaq went as high as 2057. They close right around 2140 and 1075 level, resoectily. From 60 min Nasdaq chart, Nasadq broke below the short term uptrend, signaling the start of short term correction. Is this just a short term correction or something more than that? It's hard to say at this moment. From the lower volume pattern with the recent bounce, plus some negative divergence from daily MACD and STO, there's chance the market is forming the double top pattern. also, $VIX is testing important support at 23 and its STO is at oversold level. But at the other hand, the trend is up and ADX is showing uptrend strength. So, be careful if you are either bull or bear, at the current moment.