US stock market summary -- 10/30/09 weekend update

The US stock market had major turn this week. On Tuesday (10/27)09, intermediate term trend of Nasadq switched to down. On 10/28/09, intermediate term trend of $SPX switched to down. Wednesaday and Friday's big drop came with big volume. Breadth is very negative, as seen from $Bpcompq and $Bpspx. $VIX had big breakout today, which is bearish to the stock market. This is most likely just the beginning of a major downtrend and there's more room to drop. The market is oversold now, we may see oversold bounce early next week. But, we still can not rule out the possibility that market will continue to go down before an oversold bounce starts. Sometimes, when the downtrend is strong, the oversold rally could come late and shallow. As seen from both daily and weekly Nasadq charts, Nasadq is just 5 pts above important support: 2040 which was the Oct 2 low. Breaking below 2040, that would open the door to test 1960. For $SPX, it closed at the upper limit of support zone 1020 - 1035, which may provide some temperary support. Breaking through this support zone, $SPX would test 980-990.

If there an oversold bounce soon, I may find a good entry point to open short position (long BGZ)for trade 4.

Stock trading system signals update --- 10/30/09

The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09)

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).

The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy signal was generated at close of 3/20/09)

Trading positions:
Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: +5.5%

Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SDS (SDS was purchased at $38.24 at 7:00AM PT of 10/22/09). Gain/loss: +8.3%

Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +81.5% Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): No position.

US stock market update --- 10/30/09

For Nasdaq, 2040, which is the last swing low on 10/2, provided temperary support.

US stock market update --- 10/30/09

Today's big dropp confirmed what I said yersterday " I think there's higher chance that today's bounce is just a deadcat bounce in the downtrend.". Although 2050 for Nasadq may provide temperary support, more downside is ahead.

Stock trading system signal update --- 10/29/09

The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09)

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).

The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy signal was generated at close of 3/20/09)

Trading positions:
Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: +0.3%

Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SDS (SDS was purchased at $38.24 at 7:00AM PT of 10/22/09). Gain/loss: +2.6%

Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +91.7%

Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): No position.

US stock market summary --- 10/29/09

The market had strong bounce today, but the bounce came with lower volume. $Bpcompq and $Bpspx dropped for an strong up day today. I think there's higher chance that today's bounce is just a deadcat bounce in the downtrend. Looking at daily $spx chars, it was backtest the broken intermediate uptrend line with lower volume.

However, I would not be too bearish as long as 2050 for Nasdaq and 1020 for $spx is not taken out. On the other hand, if $spx breaks above 1075, I would change my bearish view.

Stock Trading System Update --- 10/28/09

The mechnical major top and bottom system : Sell ( new sell signal was generated at close of 10/27/09)

The short term trading system: Sell ( the new sell signal was generated on 10/22/09, 7AM, PT).

The SuperTrend trading sytem: Buy (the new buy sinal was generated at close of 3/20/09)

Trading positions:

Trade 1 (following the mehcanical top and bottom system) : long QID ( QID was purchased at $22.90 at 10/28/09 open). Gain/loss: +3.6%

Trade 2 (following the short term trading system): long SDS (SDS was purchased at $38.24 at 7:00AM PT of 10/22/09). Gain/loss: +7.1%

Trade 3 (following SuperTrend system signal): long QLD (QLD was purchased at $26.28 at 3/23/09 open). Gain/loss: +86%

Trade 4 (following my daily market analysis): No position.

US stock market summary --- 10/28/09

Yersterday's major sell signal from the mechanical major top and bottom system gave a good warning. Market had big drop today. Yersterday, I mentioned Nasdaq's 1st downside target is 2050, but I didn't expect Nasadq would head so fast to the 2050. At close today, Nasadq droppd 56 pts and is only 6 points away from major support 2050.

$SPX broken its intermediate uptrend line today. Now, the intermediate trend of Nasadq, NDX and $SPX are all down. For $SPX, the 1st downside target is 1020 - 1030, which I expect to provide some temperary support.

US stock market summary -- 10/27/09

My mechanical major top and bottom system issued a new major SELL signal at market close of 10/27/09. Nasdaq broke below its intermediate uptrend line, 1st downside target is 2050. SPX has not broken below its intermediate uptrend line yet. Once SPX broke below its intermediate uptrend line, that would be very bearish.

US stock summary

I have been very busy recenlty and have not been updated my blog for a few days.

I will go back to regular update soon.

US stock market update -- 10/22/09, 7:10AM ET

My short term trading system issed a new short term sell signal at 7:00AM ET today. Nasadq broke below 2150 and $SPX broke beow 1080. Now, Nasde is testing its daily 20MA. Will post more analysis later.

US stock market update --- 10/20/09

Not much to update today. The support/resistance mentioned in yersterday' update is still valid.
There's no signal change from any of my trading systems.

US stock market summary --- 10/19/09

The market just refused to have any correction. For Nasadq, support is 2150, resistance is 2190 -2200. For $SPX, support is 1075 to 1080, resistance is 1100. $Bpcompq and $Bpspx doesn't support the today's rally, but if we have to respect the price itself as long as the above mentioned support is held. 1100 for $SPX and 2200 for Nasadq are something we need to watch closely.

My mechanical major top and bottom sugnal is still at major buy since the last buy signal generated on 10/9/09.
My short term trading system is still at short term buy since the last buy signal generated on 10/5/09.
My position trading system is still at major buy since the last buy signal generated on 3/18/09

Regarding to trading stock trading system signal

I will try to start to update stock trading system signals and trades related to them Monday since I have been so busy this weekend.

US stock market Summary - 10/18/09

From 60min charts, $spx seems to break down from bearish wedge and were backtesting it. Breaking below 1080 would signal start of short term correction.

2150 is important support for Nasadq, as seen from daily Nasdaq chart. Breaking below 2150 would open the dooor for Nasdaq to test the intermediate uptrend line.

10/15/09 US market summary

For Nasadq, short term support is 2157. Break above 2173, Nasadq would test 2190 - 2200 which may be the show stopper for this big rally from 3/2009. For $SPX, the short term support is 1086, the short term resistance is 1100.

At the blog, I mainly posted my market analysis, which could be biased sometimes. I like to allocate my most capital trade with my mechanical systems , which are motion-free and can give nice gain consistently.

From next week, I may change the content of my blog a little bit. I am considering to include the signal for each of my 3 mechanical trading systems, plus the trades folowing each system, in addtion to daily matket view.

US stock market summary -- 10/13/09 after close

US stock market barely changed today, waiting for Intel's earning report after close. The good early report which was released after close will probably drive Nasdaq to test resistance at 2157 and $SPX to test resistance at 1080. How they will react to these resistance if they get there will give us better clue regarding to market's short term direction.

US stock markey summary -- 10/13/09 10:00AM PT

Toady' market move could be limited, because a lot of opeople are waiting for Intel's earning which will be released after close today, which could be a market mover. at this moment, I would n't bet how it comes out and how it will affect stock market. Let's just wait to get better idea.

US market summary --- 10/12/09 after close

Today, Nasdaq and $SPX broke above the resistance mention at yertserday's post -- 2140 and 1075, respectivly. $SPX tested 9/23 high at 1080. And Nasdaq went as high as 2057. They close right around 2140 and 1075 level, resoectily. From 60 min Nasdaq chart, Nasadq broke below the short term uptrend, signaling the start of short term correction. Is this just a short term correction or something more than that? It's hard to say at this moment. From the lower volume pattern with the recent bounce, plus some negative divergence from daily MACD and STO, there's chance the market is forming the double top pattern. also, $VIX is testing important support at 23 and its STO is at oversold level. But at the other hand, the trend is up and ADX is showing uptrend strength. So, be careful if you are either bull or bear, at the current moment.

US stock market weekend summary --- 10/11/09

As you have read my blog recently, I have been calling 9/23 top is an important top recently. But the recent strong bounce made me switch my market view from bearish to neutral. From the trend itself, all three trends (short term trend, semi-intermediate trend, intermediate trend)
are all up. Also, my mechanical major top and bottom system issued a new major Buy signal at Friday close.
However, the recent bounce has come with lower volume, which made me to be a little careful about this rally unless Nasadq can decisively break above 2140 and $SPX can decisively break above 1075.

US stock market Summary -- 10/8/09 after close

The major indexes broke above the downtrend line today. Technically, the semi-intermediate trend is up. But my mid and short term view are not bullish. Also, my mechanical major top and bottom system has not issued a new Buy signal as of market close today. Although my QID postion for positioning trading was stopped today, that doesn't mean it's time to buy QLD for positioning trading. The short term trading system for trading SSO and SDS is still at short term buy signal.

US stock market update -- 10/8/09, 6:35AM PT

US stock major indexes broke above their downtrend line at the open. My QID position for position trading was stopped out at the open.

US stock market update --- 12:30AM, PT

From the pre-open future, the US stock market may have a gap up open and break above downtrend line. I use downtrend line resistance of Nasdaq as stop for my postion traidng postion of QID. It could be stopped out tomrrow morning. That's ok. I go by the ruled and I don't fight the trend.

US market upadte --- 10/7/09 after close

Both Nasdaq and $SPX had small gain and closed right at downtrend line. The downtrend line is not taken out yet, so the semi-intermdediate trend is still down. Today's volume is lighter. On the other hand, there's no sign to see the bounce is done yet although some negative divergence is showing up on 60 min charts. Hopefully, we will know better tomorrow.

US stock market update --- 12:15PM ET, 10/7/09

Yersday's rally was not confirmed by $Bpcompq which didn't gain at all. Today, as you see from the 60 min charts, both Nasadq and $SPX tested downtrend line (red line) and failed to take them out. The MACD histogram from these two 60 min charts are showing negative divergence.

Again, as long as downtrend is not taken out, the trend is still down.

Will post more analysis after market close.

NASDAQ and $spx found strong resistance at downtrend line

Nadaq and $spx found strong resistance at downtrend line. So far, they have lost half gain from this morning.

Sent from my iPhone

US stock update --- 10/6/09

Although the bounce is strong, as long as the downtrend line (red line) is not taken out, the bearish senario still hold.

Us stock morning update --/ 10/6/08

This morning' rally is strong and took out daily 20ma/ema decisively. The short term trading system should have issued new buy signal at 7:00am pt, but I was not able to update the signal there because of travelling and not having access to my computer. I can still send message to my blog to post message.

Sent from my iPhone

Stock trading system

In case some people don't know, I post two of my stocktrading system signals at http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3189198

For intrad-day comment and weekend update, I post here at my blog.

For after market close updates, I post them both at my blog here and at http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID3189198. But I like to put more details here.

US stock market summary --- 10/5/09

The market had bounce today. Both Nasdaq and $SPX went up to test their daily 20MA/20EMA. The rally came with lower volume. Today's bounce could be just an oversold bounce which could be short-lived. From60 min Nasadq chart, Nasdaq is forming a bearish flag. Breaking below the lower trend line of the bearish flag would signal the end of the bounce.

US stock market morning update --- 10/5/09

As I stated in the weekend update, Today's bounce is most likely short-lived. It could be just an oversold bounce.

Us stock market morning update 10/5

We get the bounce expected. How high will it go? Daily 20ma/20ema could be maximum target.

US stock market weekend date --- 10/4/09

US stock's market's big drop Thursday, causing a lot of technical damage, confirming the top on 9/23/09 was an important top and downtrend has started.

Friday, Nasadq tested the last swing high (from the end of August) at 2040 and stopped right above that. $SPX tested its daily 50MA at 1020 and bounced up 5 pts from there. Although we may see oversold bounce Monday because of the oversold condition, those two levels should be taken out soon. Why?

The downtrend atually just started. $VIX broke above the descending triangle and its ADX is showing $VIX's uptrend is strong and has much more room to go up. This is very bearish to the stock market in the mid term.

Although Friday, Nasadq and $SPX didn't dropped much, Bpcompq dropped 1.56 and $Bpspx dropped 3.6, signaling the market breadth is very breaish and there's more downside ahead.

OBV of the major stock indexes has clearly in downtrend, confirming the downtrend of the major indexes themselves.

As you can see from daily charts of Nasadq and $SPX, -DI crossover above +DI. This is another bearish sign.

Many mid term signals (such as my $NASI and NYSI signal) issued new Sell signal last Tuesday. My mechanical major top and bottom systems also issued a new Major sell signal. Another of my proprietary mechanical trading systems also generated a new major SELL signal last Thursday. That system usually signals big moves.

How low can this downtrend go? The possible downside target for Nasadq is 1750 to 1820, for $SPX is 875 to 920. Some Elliot wavers claimed P2 top was in, we may see new low (lower than 3/9) from here. I don't take it serously. The bottom line is the now the downtrend started, we should follow the downtrend.

BAC broke below its intermediate uptrend line, 1st downside target is $15

BAC broke below its intermediate up trend line. Now its intermediate trend is down. Its 1st downside target is $15.

FAS broke below its semi-intermediate trend line, next downside target is $66

Today, FAS broke blow its semi-intermediate uptrend line decisively with high volume. This opens the door to test $66.

US market summary --- 10/1/09 after close

The market had very big sell off today, confirming what I said in the last weekend's update " we may have seen important top on 9/23/09". My mechanical major top and bottom signal issued a new major SELL today.

Many stocks had big broke down today. All major stock indexes broke below their daily 20MA/20EMA decisively. Nasadq closed right at intermdediate up trend line. I expect market may bounce to back-test its daily 20MA/20EMA and then resume down move again.

US stock update --- 10/1/09, 8:00AM PT

Market dropped sharply this morning, confirming Monday's rally was a bull trap and there's more downside ahead. Actually, the last few days volume trend has warning us not to be bullish.